Real estate agency released a poll with housing market crash outlook on Wednesday, which forecasts further cooling in both pricing and sales activity for most markets across the country.
For most of 2022, economists have shown that the Bank of Canada is increasing interest rate alleviate the red-hot housing market the country is about to get out of COVID-19 pandemic. Higher borrowing costs have limited buyers’ ability to pay and limited the rampant price increases seen over the past two and a half years.
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The Re/Max survey, conducted by polling firm Leger, shows a cooling off is expected in the fall: about 44% of Canadians have temporarily shelved their home-buying aspirations. them due to the rising rate, overshadowing 34% of potential buyers, who said the higher rate would not discourage them.
But it’s not just higher rates that hit housing activity directly: as the Bank of Canada looks to get out of the economy and get inflation back under control, fears of a recession also put buyers and sellers on edge. sell fear.
About 41% of survey respondents said they are pausing plans to buy or sell a home to avoid a possible recession.
Elton Ash, executive vice president of Re/Max Canada, said in a statement that the brokerage firm anticipates that the housing market slowdown tied to economic uncertainty will be short-lived. .
“Despite the fact that nearly half of Canadians are waiting to buy or sell a home, we are confident that when economic conditions improve in mid-2023, activity will resume,” he said.
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However, for the rest of 2022, Re/Max expects median home prices to fall 2.2%.
However, six of the 30 markets analyzed will see modest price gains, between 1.5 and seven percent.
Prices are expected to rise slightly in Edmonton and Calgary this fall, as well as in Moncton, NB, St. John’s, NL and Halifax.
In British Columbia, selling prices are expected to drop 3% in Metro Vancouver and 6.5% in Kelowna/Central Okanagan, while holding steady in Victoria.
Cities in Ontario, in addition to Oakville and Muskoka, are expected to hold steady or see prices fall between 2 and 10 percent. Barrie is expected to see the steepest drop at 10%.
The Leger poll conducted on behalf of Re/Max Canada surveyed 1,522 Canadians online between September 16 and 18. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20. .
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