Quebecers will vote on October 3, with the Incumbent Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) dominating the polls and expected to win another majority government. With less than four weeks left in the election campaign, here’s how the race – and the outcome – could affect the rest of Canada.
A recent Leger poll placed CAQ ahead of its competitors, with 42% of respondents saying they would vote for the incumbent party for a different mandate. This compares with 17% for the Liberal Party of Quebec, 15% for Quebec Solidaire, 14% for the Quebec Conservatives, and finally the Parti Quebecois and other parties followed with 9% and 3% respectively.
Meanwhile, CAQ is performing to its record for the past four years, so Quebe Cancers, the federal government and Canadians can expect more of the same from la belle province under the Premier. François Legault, according to Daniel Béland, a political science professor and director of McGill University’s Institute of Canadian Studies.
Béland told CTVNews.ca that when it comes to Legault’s relationship with Foreign Minister Justin Trudeau, the CAQ’s resounding victory may not be what the federal Liberals expected, especially since the prime minister encouraged Quebecers to vote Conservative in the last federal election.
Legault has also focused on strengthening Quebec’s autonomy during his last term and plans to continue down that path, Béland said.
He added while it is unlikely that there will be any major surprises in this election, he is watching to see how strong the final CAQ victory is.
“That could cause some alarm for the Liberals,” Béland said. “It wouldn’t be good news for Justin Trudeau to see CAQ getting stronger and stronger.”
One point of contention is the difference between Quebec and Canada’s immigration policies. Legault told The Canadian Press that he plans to leave the province’s immigration target unchanged – about 50,000 people a year – to meet Quebec’s “ability to integrate” and preserve the French language, calling the immigration policy Trudeau’s immigration is “extremist”.
Béland called the divergence of federal and provincial goals, with Legault at the top, an “incongruous vision.”
Another important issue is Quebec’s controversial bills 21 and 96. The former is the province’s secular law, which prohibits civil servants from wearing religious symbols while at work, and the latter, the language law, which asserts that French is the official and common language of Quebec, and seeks to strengthen it. Use it in public and workplace.
Pearl Eliadis, a human rights lawyer and associate professor at McGill University, told CTVNews.ca the two pieces of legislation — and CAQ’s use of the defiance clause to protect them from court challenges — show that ” CAQ’s unilateral effort to change the fundamental Charter and constitutional values, “and” promotes and entails the constitution. “
“I think it’s important to have foresight on this issue,” she said, explaining that it is neither the first nor the last time a province has tried to interfere with the Constitution.
“If this becomes the norm, if this becomes the way we do business politically, I think the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms could quickly become much less relevant than it has been since 1982,” Eliadis also said.
At the same time, there is another election underway: an election for a new Canadian Conservative Party leader.
Béland said it would be interesting to see how the alleged frontrunner Pierre Poilievre reacts to the candidates of the Quebec election if he wins the leadership of the federal Conservative Party.
On the one hand, Béland explains, Poilievre and Legault both support populist views, but he’s more interested in seeing if Quebec leader Éric Duhaime’s fourth-placed Conservative Party won enough seats to make good allies for Poilievre, for whom he was famous or not for more than two decades.