Via Sean Jones: Canelo Alvarez’s recent loss to Dmitry Bivol shows he’s vulnerable at this stage of his 17-year professional career and is likely to be beaten by Gennadiy Golovkin on September 17.
A lot of boxing fans mistakenly, focusing on 40-year-old Golovkin’s age, think he’s the one headed for an almost certain loss in his three-part bout against heavyweight favorite Canelo ( 57-2-2, 39 KOs).
That’s another way. The 32-year-old Canelo is the one who has worn him down on a long professional career that spanned more than half of his life.
Canelo has been able to hide his decline by beating the paper champions from Europe over the past four years. When Canelo ended up hanging out with someone pretty skilled in Bivol, he was defeated on target last May.
Believe me, we’ll see Canelo exposed if he’s been fighting David Benavidez for the past four years, but he’s wisely stayed away from the young gun. Now, he says he won’t fight the Mexican boxer, meaning Benavidez won’t stand a chance to take him down.
Golovkin still has the strength and skill to beat Canelo, but he’ll need to really put it on him to get the win at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
We just saw Bivol narrowly lose to Canelo last May despite the fact that he completely learned from him, and fought well enough to win 11-1 in the innings. If Golovkin didn’t mind narrowing down the blueprint from Bivol, he could outmaneuver Canelo and outdo him by throwing combinations.
Golovkin had to forget about loading his single shots like he did in the first two games against Canelo because he would never take him down.
Canelo hits a punch too well for him to be knocked down by GGG. It would take someone like Artur Beterbiev to stop Canelo, but he wasn’t crazy enough to fight him.
“The rubber match between Gennadiy Golovkin and Canelo Alvarez. Four years have passed since Gennadiy and Canelo last entered the ring,” Chris Mannix told DAZN Boxing Show. “What are some of the variables as you look ahead in this fight?”
“One of the key factors is the amount of inactivity, which Gennadiy Golovkin will have to overcome,” said Mike Costello. “He only fought once in the last sixteen months and fought Ryota Murata in Japan.
“It was not the most impressive performance. He, in turn, is taking the longest break of his professional career. So maybe we made allowances for what was, for me, a side gig.
“The stab was very effective in the first two skirmishes [with Canelo]For me, it seems to have been lost.
“Now, if we pay the allowance for the time he left the ring. But if you want to prolong his time out of the ring, in the last three years, and I know this includes the pandemic, he’s only fought twice.
“In that same time period, Canelo has been a lot busier, and you have to say, against a better level of opposition. I think the important variable is the amount of Golovkin left. If that’s just what we saw against Ryota Murata, then I think it won’t be enough.
“Now, I am making allowances for him being away from the ring for so long and with problems during construction and with the conditions surrounding Covid restrictions in Japan at the time. that point.
“Here, I am trying to find reasons rather than excuses why he had to breathe so fast in the second half. Why does he have to mess with body shots the way he has been for so long?
“I was very impressed with the fact that he finished so clinically the way he could have done five or six years ago with one right hand.
If you look at Murata, there was a time when he grimaced in the previous rounds until the ninth.
“I just think there’s so much evidence in the fight that Gennadiy Golovkin at 40 isn’t the same controller he was four years ago and five years ago when he first faced Canelo,” Costello said. first and second.
“Yes, I agree with most of that,” Mannix said. “Before the Canelo, the Gennadiy was one of the first class fighters. He will make financial supports so that significant wars can occur.
“Even the ones he doesn’t get Miguel Cotto, Sergio Martinez, and for a while Canelo, he’s willing to get in there with Daniel Jacobs, David Lemieux, whoever he has to get in there, he’ll find a way. to get it done. Curtis Stevens on that list.
“Since his second battle with Canelo, like he was, I wouldn’t say necessarily picking cherries, he’s been in as many non-threatening battles as he can.
“Steve Rolls, which he sees as a shake-up of the rust war, predicts Canelo in the fall of 2018. When that didn’t happen, he then moved on to Sergiy Derevyanchenko, then Kamil Szeremeta, and then Ryota Murata.
“There are reasons for these wars. Szeremeta is the mandatory title defender. You’ve got Murata, who’s got a full version of a middleweight title. So now he’s a unified champion going into this third fight with Canelo, but he didn’t go up against Jaime Munguia; he doesn’t take on Demetrius Andrade.
“He doesn’t have the gladiator type that he used to have before the first two games against Canelo. That makes me wonder how much confidence Golovkin and his team have that he can still win a big fight.
“The other part of it is, I mentioned Derevyanchenko. After Derevyanchenko’s match, you had a lot of questions about Gennadiy Golovkin’s physical stability, and you saw that in the match against Murata.
“Murata hit Golovkin a few times in the body and made Golovkin take a deep breath, step back and regroup, and against Murata he was able to do it because Murata is not a scary puncher and not really an elite middle class person.
“I wonder, knowing Eddy Reynoso, knowing Canelo, would have an excellent game plan when it comes to a body attack. How much can he endure if Canelo doesn’t stop entering the body?
“Canelo is a boxer with a great physique. His speed, and his power in the midsection, is as good as anyone in boxing. He will attack Golovkin’s body.
“Golovkin, at this stage at the age of 40, having been through all he has been through, can he withstand such an onslaught? For me, that was the biggest question for GGG,” said Mannix
“So we also came up with questions around Canelo,” says Costello. “If we are looking for hope, if we are looking for reasons to look forward to this match in the way that we were so excited to predict the first two games.
“Can we ask a man who has been in the profession for 17 years, more than half his life? There were a lot of tough innings and a lot of tough matches. Another line from Manny Steward at that clinic that I said a while ago, ‘You can usually judge a boxer’s age, not by months and years, not by calendar, but by the number of hard rounds that they had.
“For all his successes, there have been many, many difficult innings against Canelo. There were tough innings for him most recently against Dmitry Bivol. There is a period in the middle of the battle, a rather long, relatively inactive spell, where he appears to be on vacation.
“Is he doing it because he has to because he is no longer mentally and physically restless? Something else for me is not a straight line; Now he plays a lot of golf.
“To get to the standard he plays golf, you have to play a lot. I just wonder if that at this stage of his life is a factor too, and if that takes away from focus and devotion in the gym.
“I really miss what writer Jerry Eisenberg said about Ali and Frazier back in the ’70s. When they fought, it ended up being a fight not for any title but for each other’s championship.
“I feel the same way about these two. Once the bell rings, they bring out the best in each other.
“I just hope in both cases; Costello said: “
“Yes, when I look back at the fight with Bivol, it’s not an excuse because you should be prepared, and Bivol was great. I don’t think Canelo takes it as seriously as he should,” Mannix said.
“I think Canelo looked at Bivol and saw how he struggled against Craig Richards and saw that he couldn’t bring down Lenin Castillo. Watch a video of him in his last fight and say, ‘This guy isn’t going to be a big threat.’
“Then you can get in the ring with him, and Bivol has the performance of his life, like the guy that showed up when he was fighting on HBO, knocking out Sullivan Barrera and a bunch of guys. this edge is at position 175,” says Mannix.