An area of intensely warm weather – the so-called “extreme heat belt” – with at least one day per year in which the heat index reaches 125 Fahrenheit (52C), is expected to cover an area of the United States has more than 100 according to a recent study million people by 2053.
Research conducted by the nonprofit First Street Foundation used a peer-reviewed model built with public and third-party data to estimate heat risk at what they call the scale. “super local” is 30 square meters.
The mission of the First Street Foundation is to make climate risk modeling accessible to the public, government and industry representatives, such as real estate investors and insurance companies.
A key finding from the study is that temperatures above the threshold of the National Weather Service’s highest category — known as “Extremely hazardous,” or above 125 degrees Fahrenheit — are expected to affect to 8.1 million people by 2023 and increase to 107 million people by 2053, a 13-fold increase.
This would include a geographic area that stretches from northern Texas and Louisiana to Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin – areas further inland from milder weather commonly found near the coasts.
The heat index, also known as apparent temperature, is the actual perceived external temperature to the human body when relative humidity is combined with air temperature.
To create their model, the team examined land surface and air temperatures taken from satellites between 2014 and 2020, to help understand the exact relationship between the two measurements.
This information was further studied by taking into account altitude, how water is absorbed in the area, distance to surface water, and distance to shore.
The model was then extended to future climate conditions, using the “middle of the road” scenario projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in which carbon dioxide levels begin to decline. mid-century, but does not reach net zero by 2100.
In addition to the “Extremely Dangerous” days, areas across the country are forecast to experience hotter temperatures, with varying degrees of resilience.
“These local temperature increases lead to significant impacts on communities that have not adapted to warmer-than-usual climates,” the report said.
For example, a 10 percent temperature increase in northeastern Maine could be as dangerous as a 10 percent increase in southwest Texas, even though absolute temperatures are higher in Texas.
The largest predicted local temperature variation occurs in Miami-Dade County, Florida, which currently has seven days per year at its hottest 103 degrees Fahrenheit. By 2053, that number is projected. will rise to 34 days at 103 degrees.
The increased use of air conditioners is likely due to temperature spikes that will strain the energy grid, leading to more frequent, longer marzipan conditions, the report warns.
(Except for the title, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from an aggregated feed.)