Experts say Bitcoin recovery could take months amid ongoing crypto market volatility
If you are waiting for the bitcoin rally, you may have to sweat for months. That is the conclusion of some technical experts looking for a method from the madness. Bitcoin’s slide since May, fueled by economic fury, has pushed it below its 200-week moving average, at around $22,600 (around Rs 18,05,800), as has the average Its 200-day movement is around $35,500 (about Rs. 26, 76,700). It is currently flat for more than a month, hovering close to the 200-week moving average.
Valkyrie Investments says its research is pointing to an upside move – but it’s unclear when.
“Historically, we’ve accumulated (about 200 weeks on average) over three to six months,” said Josh Olszewicz, Valkyrie’s head of research, said Josh Olszewicz, Valkyrie’s lead researcher. refers to the period of sideways trading before the price breaks out.
From late 2018 to early 2019, bitcoin spent nearly three months breaking above the 200-week moving average.
However, in a more bleak scenario, bitcoin may not rise for about a year, Olszewicz added.
Moving averages flatten out wild price movements to clean up the signal, or at least that’s the idea. Traders use longer averages to find the next support or resistance levels.
However, analyzing charts based on historical price patterns is still not an exact science, especially when it comes to the nascent, fast, and furious history of cryptocurrencies.
Several other technical indicators are signaling a range of potential support levels for bitcoin, from $20,000 (approximately Rs 16 lakh) to $12,000 (roughly Rs 9,58,900) – suggesting that the cryptocurrency is major The world may plunge again.
This week, bitcoin is rising just above its 2017 peak, but 68% below its all-time high of $69,000 (approximately Rs 55,13,300) reached last November.
‘FOUR STEP DOWN, ONE UP’
Some see a pattern during the recent drop.
“The market is in a bearish channel starting in May,” said Eddie Tofpik, head of technical analysis at ADM Investor Services International. “Looks like it’s in four-step down and one-step mode at the moment.”
Patrick Reid, co-founder of FX consultancy Adamis Principle.
Olszewicz at Valkyrie points to $12,000 (about Rs 9,58,900), a level bitcoin hasn’t touched in almost two years, as the next level of support.
In the absence of fundamental momentum, technical analysis has proved useful to identify some long-term trading patterns for cryptocurrencies like bitcoin.
For example, a famous “cross” chart pattern on December 10 foreshadowed the subsequent plunge in bitcoin. In early January, the 200-day moving average proved a strong resistance.
Such methods also come with dangers, as demonstrated this year when the collapse of stablecoin TerraUSD and its paired Luna token and subsequently hedge fund Three Arrows Capital caused a crash fixed in all cryptocurrencies.
Spot crypto trading on major exchanges fell 27.5% in June to $1.41 trillion (approximately Rs 1,12.64,600 crore), the lowest level since December 2020. According to data from research firm CryptoCompare.
“Confidence has gone out of the market in a big way,” said Reid at Adamis Principle.
© Thomson Reuters 2022