Honeywell International Inc. see the first electric aircraft take off like a helicopter and fly like an airplane starting to take commercial flights in 2025, but air taxis won’t explode until near the end of the decade .
Mike Madsen, Honeywell’s head of aerospace business, said at a Jefferies conference that early cases of electric vertical take-off and landing, or eVTOL, will be mostly as limited to military and cargo applications. Passenger service is still many years away and a pilot may be needed in the near future futurebut Madsen said air taxis will eventually be the catalyst for double-digit growth in the nascent industry.
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“There will be a number of vehicles that are initially introduced that will be used for a limited number of use cases maybe under some pretty strict requirements and then it will be successful,” Madsen said. know. He expects Honeywell eVTOL-related sales to grow to about $2 billion by 2030. “It’s going to be slow at first.”
The promise of more nimble planes that use more electric propulsion, are quieter, safer and less expensive to maintain than helicopters’ internal combustion engines, have attracted some starting a business as well as traditional aerospace manufacturers. According to JPMorgan Chase analyst Marcelo Motta, the passenger market alone could grow to $1 trillion by 2040 and around $3 trillion including military and cargo. Even the manufacturers of eVTOL that have made the most progress still have many regulatory hurdles, and some experts say certification for pilotless flights could be years away.
“Regulation will be the challenge, not the technology,” Madsen said.
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